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"Argentina, whose securities yield more over U.S. Treasuries than bonds from any major emerging-market country except for Venezuela and Ecuador, is benefitting from central bank forecasts that the economy will grow the most since 1992.
But Argentine yields may fall below Ukraine’s for the first time since February by year-end.
“On the fundamentals side Argentina is much more of a stronger case nowadays than Ukraine,” says Sergio Trigo Paz. “The economic data coming out of Argentina has been surprising on the upside.”
“Latin America to a certain extent is surrounded by an aura of large growth, very strong growth, and very strong commodities exports, both of which are themes that are very linked into the Argentine story,” said researcher Enrique Alvarez. “Under that perspective it’s very reasonable to assume that the spread probably will shrink over time” between Argentina and Ukraine, he said.
