Showing posts with label Baseline Scenario. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baseline Scenario. Show all posts

03 June 2010

EUROZONE: Is Spain The EU's Maginot Line?

BASELINE SCENARIO/ OPINION/
Economists Peter Boone and Simon Johnson/

 "Many commentators suggest Spain is now the euro zone’s Maginot line. The argument is clear: Spain, with GDP over $1.3 trillion (8th largest in the world; 5th largest in Europe) and its large outstanding bank and public debt, is simply too big to fail without causing irreparable harm to the euro zone financial system. If we dig in here, the reasoning goes, eurozone market upheavals can be stopped."
And..."So the question is not whether Spain can remain solvent, but rather whether world markets will be patient enough – and risk tolerant enough – for a much wider range of nations to have enough time to make the needed adjustments."

15 April 2010

PORTUGAL: The Next Eurozone Challenge.

BASELINE SCENARIO/   Economist Simon Johnson/ Opinion/      "Next on the radar will be Portugal. This nation has largely missed the spotlight, if only because Greece spiralled downwards. But both are economically on the verge of bankruptcy, and they each look far more risky than Argentina did back in 2001 when it succumbed to default."

05 June 2009

Latvia's Serious Economic Struggle: Should we Care?

Former IMF economist Simon Johnson examines Latvia's recent serious financial troubles...and the EU's efforts to help it out in this blog from "Baseline Scenario."

He maintains that treatment of its current situation is a look at our common future...and a symptom of collective "wishful thinking."
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/06/05/latvia-should-you-care/

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that devaluation speculation may threaten Sweden's economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=a4ATR8cUmLSg&refer=east_europe

The NYTimes reports details of Latvia's current problem of selling short-term debt....forcing the IMF, World Bank and EU to come to its aid with billions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/05/business/global/05latvia.html?ref=todayspaper