IMF / MEXICO: Chicago Cubs Fan C.Banker Carstens Trails Lagarde.

WSJ / D. Luhnow / Agustin Carstens Profile

Agustin Carstens, 53, heads Mexico's central bank and has held IMF keys posts...but is believed to be trailing France's FM Christine Lagarde...for the top IMF job.
While he says he has the support of 12 Latin American nations...that doesn't include the 2 biggies...Brasil and Argentina.

 But there is support for him in the IMF..
An unnamed IMF staffer said many there would prefer Carstens over Lagarde... and fondly remember him as deputy.
"It's an increasingly technical world, and Agustín understands every issue backwards and forwards."

The Brasilians especially are said to be skeptical... because of his attendance at the Univ. of Chicago— the birthplace of Milton Friedman's right wing, free-market economics.
"I went to the University of Chicago, but it's not a religion," Carstens said.

MEXICO: Central Banker Says Peso Rally May Require Interest Rate Cut.

BLOOMBERG/
   Central bank Governor Agustin Carstens says he will consider interest rate cuts in 2011 to cool the peso’s record rally.
    “If the central bank perceives it is left alone in the currency war and the peso is losing competitiveness, then the central bank might consider measures including using monetary policy to discourage inflows,” said economist Jimena Zuniga.
      The peso has gained 6.7 percent this year to 12.2667  vs usd. Only Colombia's peso has gained more among  Latin American currencies, rising 10 percent since Dec. 31.

MEXICO: Calderon Choses Ally Carstens As Central Banker.

LATIMES/
President Felipe Calderon nominated Finance Minister Agustin Carstens and political ally to head Mexico's central bank. Carstens is a University of Chicago-trained economist who just placed a huge $1.17 billion hedge on 2010 oil prices. But Carstens is seen as more willing to work with Calderon than the outgoing independent Bank of Mexico director Guillermo Ortiz. "The president is taking a very high risk by fixing something that wasn't broken," said opposition member Sen. Francisco Arroyo. "The country is not in the position to take such delicate risks."

MEXICO: What Pemex's $1.17 Billion Hedge Says About Oil's Future Price?

FT ONLINE/ Analysis/
Should Pemex's dim view on 2010's oil price alarm oil market analysts?
Mexico's Finance Minister Agustin Carstens may havebet his future by a more conservative view of hedging at $57 bbl than the futures market where the Nymex December 2010 contract was trading yesterday above $82 a barrel while the January 2010 contract was trading at around $73. "It does not mean that Mexico believes that oil prices will fall as low as $57 a barrel," says Michael Wittner at Société Générale: "It's an insurance policy and the deal is all about managing risk."

MEXICO: Pays $1.17 Billion USD To Hedge Oil At $57 BBL For 2010.

BLOOMBERG/
Mexico paid $1.172 billion in oil hedge protection for 2010 to cover revenue shortfalls if production falls for the sixth straight year and prices don’t recover from about a five-year low. “If we don’t collect any resources from this transaction it’s OK because that means oil would have been above $57 a barrel,” said Finance Minister Agustin Carstens. Mexico lost about $23.3 billion of oil revenue this year as production at Pemex fell at the fastest rate since 1942.