BULGARIA: Economist Edward Hugh Analysis.

easterneuropeeconomyblogspot/    This blog doesn't normally cover Bulgaria because keeping-up with about 25 other countries is more than enough work...but we do try to feature Brit Edward Hugh's always thorough analyses. The Barcelona based, virtually self-taught economist does his thing here...on Bulgaria's economy. Beware: heavy slogging, full of charts and graphs.
HUGH: "...the question as to whether potential output growth in Bulgaria in the years to come is going to be markedly lower than it was during the boom years. As the IMF point out, the current recession was preceded by an investment boom in construction, real estate and the associated financial sectors. Now that the boom (which was always unsustainable, Bulgaria's current account deficit in 2007 hit almost 27% of GDP) is well and truly over in these sectors, the strong associated decline in investment could have large negative effects on output. Moreover, it will take considerable time before the excess labor and resources that are no longer needed in these sectors can be absorbed by other sectors, which suggests that the rate of unemployment may rise yet further and remain higher for some considerable time. Not a uniquely Bulgarian story, but none the less important for that."