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"What does it take for a Latin American leader, even one as beloved as Mr. da Silva, to pass on popularity (to his politically untested, handpicked protegee Dilma Rousseff)? The answer, as the recent elections in Colombia and Uruguay have shown, often depends on a unifying issue like security or the economy that voters resist entrusting to opposition candidates. Popularity alone may not be enough. In Chile, the sweeping support for Michelle Bachelet did not extend to her coalition’s choice to succeed her. He lost the race even before the earthquake struck in February, stirring discontent. But in Brazil, Mr. da Silva seems to be betting that his almost cultlike following can make Ms. Rousseff win." In recent polls, Rousseff has pulled even at times for the October election but officials have also fined Lula four times for early campaigning.
