Watch for Petrobras Stock to Fall

I follow some Latin American oil producing countries...and have since researching my master's in Journalism at The University of Texas at Austin .

At that time, Mexico's new Gulf oil finds fascinated me.

Now, I follow Brasil and Venezuela, as well as Mexico.

Brasil's huge recent deep pre-salt oil discoveries, however, seem very suspect to me.

Don't get me wrong. I love Brasil. I have lived there...and hope to return.

I wish the country all the wealth it can glean by selling natural resources to China and the world.

But ACTUAL production from the pre-salt is...years away.

Nevertheless the hype is strong...from Lula's governmment.
See this from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCSD5CK9xzVY

It seems like everyday there's another press release from the government majority-owned Petrobras announcing another find. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aeXEK5q9draA&refer=latin_america

As the price of oil continues to escalate due to speculation, a weaker USD and hopes that the financial crisis and the Great Recession are ending ...the US stock market continues to bid up the price of PBR (Petrobras) ADRs...way beyond value!

PBR pays almost no dividend ($.29USD) but is valued about equal to Conoco/Phillips (COP)... PBR closing yesterday at $43.30.

COP closed at $47.90...but it pays a heflty dividend($1.88 USD).

Is a bet of PBR's future enough to justify the price?

Isn't a real correction in PBR adrs due?
Read this Bloomberg story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a2OmFy4NIv9Q&refer=latin_america

And this update...http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aCKfXZyrPN_0